EE481 Incorporating Dynamic Pricing in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Are Known Unknowns Worth It?

Current practice in value assessment of pharmaceuticals is to include a static price at market launch. Recent publications suggest incorporating dynamic pricing, including changes until patent expiration and genericization post-patent expiration, for chronic disease medications. Predicting actual dynamics difficult because idiosyncrasies the branded drugs. We compare standard approach two scenarios using replicated applications. cost-effectiveness analyses published by Institute Clinical Economic Review omalizumab treatment allergic asthma elagolix endometriosis. analyzed pricing scenarios: 1) observed net SSR Health data beyond time horizon original ICER assessments (2019 – 2021); 2) same an assumed 50% reduction date based on aggregate from drugs after loss exclusivity. The primary outcome was relative percentage change incremental ratios (ICERs) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) versus pricing. Base-case ICERs were $325,000 QALY $81,000 elagolix, respectively. Scenario 1 without resulted +10% +8% 2 with -30% -22% In both scenarios, omalizumab’s remained above $150,000 elagolix’s between $50,000 $100,000 QALY. While we similar conclusions when imprecision reductions highlight challenges accounting assessment. More work needed predict launch determine if this can meaningfully inform